As I write this, the Kansas City Royals have won eight of their ten games since the All-Star Break and are on a six game winning streak. This is cause for celebration, but also marks an interesting turn in the history of the Royals.
You see, for the first time in a decade, the Royals are in the hunt for a playoff spot. And with only 102 games played, that leaves 60 games left to determine who is in and who is out. I would not give the Royals great odds for making the playoffs, but they are only sitting seven games back in the division and five games back of the second wild card. This means that if the Royals are able to go, lets say 7-2, over their upcoming series' with the Twins, Mets and Twins, who suck, then they will be on the verge of postseason contention.
Now, if we project the Royals' winning percentage from the months not named "May" over the rest of the season, removing an 8-20 from their 51-51 which would then project as a .614 winning percentage, they will end up with a record of 88-74. This may very well be enough to take the second wild card slot.
Based on these calculations, the question then becomes "What should the Royals do to improve their chances?" The general consensus here is that they should acquire a second baseman that is capable of improving on the disastrous .227/.277/.307 line that has been posted by Royals second baseman thus far. There are others who will do more detailed write-ups about the options and the level of interest, such as Rany Jazayerli here, so I am going to focus on the two options that I find most compelling, though perhaps not the most likely. These two options are Howie Kendrick of the Angels and Kolten Wong a minor-leaguer for the Cardinals.
Now I suppose that the first order of business should be to explain why I like these two better than other options. The answer is that they seem to be worth it, but each for different reasons.
Howie Kendrick is a veteran player who has consistently displayed about a league average glove with a slightly above average bat, especially for a 2B. This is what we are ideally looking for when searching for a trade option. You want someone who will be a great benefit to you without any notable downside. Given that the defense at second has been fine at best and subpar at worst, trading for a second baseman with only league average defensive skills is not a problem. Where Kendrick would really make a difference would be offensively. Kendrick's career batting line is .293/.330/.430, which would be a nearly 200 point OPS increase. And Kendrick is even having an above average year with a total OPS of .790 so far. This would make our second baseman go from being bottom of the lineup every game to possibly batting 5th or 6th every day. As an added bonus, Kendrick isn't set to become a free agent until after the 2015 season, which could feasibly make any sane trade worthwhile since the position will be locked down for the next two years.
Now, the downside of the trade is that Kendrick is perceived as a very good second baseman, albeit not elite, and going after him will likely cost a considerable amount in prospects. Jazayerli estimates that he could cost us both Yordano Ventura and Kyle Smith, a highly touted pitching prospect and a prospect who has done nothing but impress so far. Another negative is that Kendrick would cost about $23 million between now and 2015 in salary. This is a good amount, but if Kendrick continues his career performance through age 32, which isn't unlikely, then it could be a good value for a strong second baseman. The only real problem here might be that the Royals already have their highest payroll ever this year and it would only go up with the acquisition of Kendrick. However, the Royals will have the salaries of Jeff Francoeur, Bruce Chen and Ervin Santana (likely) coming off the books after the season. This should save around $24 million for next year, and I don't believe that anyone currently on the roster should be increasing drastically in cost. This means that the Royals should theoretically have enough money to burn on a guy with solid production like Kendrick. If I was the GM, and probably thank god that I'm not, I would be on the phone with DiPoto nonstop until we could come to an agreement that included maybe one upper tier prospect and a couple middle to lower tier prospects. To me, Zimmer is untouchable, but I would be willing to part with pretty much anyone else, though not all at once. If we could retain Ventura then that would be a plus, but if he must be included then I just might pull the trigger.
Now let's move on to Kolten Wong. This is a very different kind of situation. Wong is a second baseman in the St. Louis Cardinals' minor league system. This is the option that Jazayerli advocates most, and I do see why he is an attractive option. Wong is a good prospect that should be able to develop into a good player. However, Wong is only the 55th best prospect in baseball according to MLB's prospect rankings. Wong would likely come at a lower cost than Kendrick, especially dollar wise, but I personally am concerned with his lack of production in the minors. When comparing Wong and Kendrick at similar ages in the minors, Kendrick had an OPS over 1.000 in his age 21 and 22 seasons while Wong has only managed a .754 and .820 thus far. In all reality, if you were going to go for a minor league 2B, the Royals already have a solid option in Johnny Giavotella, who has similar numbers to Wong, but is already in the system. However, it is clear that Johnny's major league failings have put him behind the proverbial eight-ball in regards to getting any serious playing time with the club. The final downside to Wong is that he may take Ervin Santana to acquire. This would be a rather steep price to pay, unless the Cardinals would be willing to part with some other substantial talent.
My conclusion is that the Royals should attempt to acquire Howie Kendrick. The combination of his known production and the Royals' ability to afford him makes him an ideal candidate for the second base job, both now and for the next couple years. If the team is truly ready to compete for the postseason, this is the kind of player that they need to target. His additional contract years make him a great fit for the playoff push this year and to compete at a high level for the coming years. The only thing that could deter me from acquiring him is if the Angels were asking too much for him, such as demanding Zimmer or possibly Ventura and another higher tier prospect. If this is the case, Wong would be a good target, but if Santana must be included in the trade then the Cardinals will have to give up another one or two decent to good prospects.
Isn't it fun to talk about trade situations that improve the major league team rather than net us prospects?
Jovially yours,
Brandan
