As I write this, the Kansas City Royals have won eight of their ten games since the All-Star Break and are on a six game winning streak. This is cause for celebration, but also marks an interesting turn in the history of the Royals.
You see, for the first time in a decade, the Royals are in the hunt for a playoff spot. And with only 102 games played, that leaves 60 games left to determine who is in and who is out. I would not give the Royals great odds for making the playoffs, but they are only sitting seven games back in the division and five games back of the second wild card. This means that if the Royals are able to go, lets say 7-2, over their upcoming series' with the Twins, Mets and Twins, who suck, then they will be on the verge of postseason contention.
Now, if we project the Royals' winning percentage from the months not named "May" over the rest of the season, removing an 8-20 from their 51-51 which would then project as a .614 winning percentage, they will end up with a record of 88-74. This may very well be enough to take the second wild card slot.
Based on these calculations, the question then becomes "What should the Royals do to improve their chances?" The general consensus here is that they should acquire a second baseman that is capable of improving on the disastrous .227/.277/.307 line that has been posted by Royals second baseman thus far. There are others who will do more detailed write-ups about the options and the level of interest, such as Rany Jazayerli here, so I am going to focus on the two options that I find most compelling, though perhaps not the most likely. These two options are Howie Kendrick of the Angels and Kolten Wong a minor-leaguer for the Cardinals.
Now I suppose that the first order of business should be to explain why I like these two better than other options. The answer is that they seem to be worth it, but each for different reasons.
Howie Kendrick is a veteran player who has consistently displayed about a league average glove with a slightly above average bat, especially for a 2B. This is what we are ideally looking for when searching for a trade option. You want someone who will be a great benefit to you without any notable downside. Given that the defense at second has been fine at best and subpar at worst, trading for a second baseman with only league average defensive skills is not a problem. Where Kendrick would really make a difference would be offensively. Kendrick's career batting line is .293/.330/.430, which would be a nearly 200 point OPS increase. And Kendrick is even having an above average year with a total OPS of .790 so far. This would make our second baseman go from being bottom of the lineup every game to possibly batting 5th or 6th every day. As an added bonus, Kendrick isn't set to become a free agent until after the 2015 season, which could feasibly make any sane trade worthwhile since the position will be locked down for the next two years.
Now, the downside of the trade is that Kendrick is perceived as a very good second baseman, albeit not elite, and going after him will likely cost a considerable amount in prospects. Jazayerli estimates that he could cost us both Yordano Ventura and Kyle Smith, a highly touted pitching prospect and a prospect who has done nothing but impress so far. Another negative is that Kendrick would cost about $23 million between now and 2015 in salary. This is a good amount, but if Kendrick continues his career performance through age 32, which isn't unlikely, then it could be a good value for a strong second baseman. The only real problem here might be that the Royals already have their highest payroll ever this year and it would only go up with the acquisition of Kendrick. However, the Royals will have the salaries of Jeff Francoeur, Bruce Chen and Ervin Santana (likely) coming off the books after the season. This should save around $24 million for next year, and I don't believe that anyone currently on the roster should be increasing drastically in cost. This means that the Royals should theoretically have enough money to burn on a guy with solid production like Kendrick. If I was the GM, and probably thank god that I'm not, I would be on the phone with DiPoto nonstop until we could come to an agreement that included maybe one upper tier prospect and a couple middle to lower tier prospects. To me, Zimmer is untouchable, but I would be willing to part with pretty much anyone else, though not all at once. If we could retain Ventura then that would be a plus, but if he must be included then I just might pull the trigger.
Now let's move on to Kolten Wong. This is a very different kind of situation. Wong is a second baseman in the St. Louis Cardinals' minor league system. This is the option that Jazayerli advocates most, and I do see why he is an attractive option. Wong is a good prospect that should be able to develop into a good player. However, Wong is only the 55th best prospect in baseball according to MLB's prospect rankings. Wong would likely come at a lower cost than Kendrick, especially dollar wise, but I personally am concerned with his lack of production in the minors. When comparing Wong and Kendrick at similar ages in the minors, Kendrick had an OPS over 1.000 in his age 21 and 22 seasons while Wong has only managed a .754 and .820 thus far. In all reality, if you were going to go for a minor league 2B, the Royals already have a solid option in Johnny Giavotella, who has similar numbers to Wong, but is already in the system. However, it is clear that Johnny's major league failings have put him behind the proverbial eight-ball in regards to getting any serious playing time with the club. The final downside to Wong is that he may take Ervin Santana to acquire. This would be a rather steep price to pay, unless the Cardinals would be willing to part with some other substantial talent.
My conclusion is that the Royals should attempt to acquire Howie Kendrick. The combination of his known production and the Royals' ability to afford him makes him an ideal candidate for the second base job, both now and for the next couple years. If the team is truly ready to compete for the postseason, this is the kind of player that they need to target. His additional contract years make him a great fit for the playoff push this year and to compete at a high level for the coming years. The only thing that could deter me from acquiring him is if the Angels were asking too much for him, such as demanding Zimmer or possibly Ventura and another higher tier prospect. If this is the case, Wong would be a good target, but if Santana must be included in the trade then the Cardinals will have to give up another one or two decent to good prospects.
Isn't it fun to talk about trade situations that improve the major league team rather than net us prospects?
Jovially yours,
Brandan
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Thursday, May 9, 2013
The same things became different things.
Well, I didn't get in to medical school. I was, as I mentioned, placed on the "hold list" which is somewhat of an improvement, but I did not make it to the wait list. While discouraging, I'm not yet done.
The good news is that it all seemed to crystallize for the better when my letter came. Even though I was disappointed with the outcome, I finally could pursue new avenues without a fear of having to change mid-course. This was a relief, but it doesn't make things any easier.
I've decided to apply to various research and healthcare positions in the area in order to further bolster my application. I really have no idea when or where I will find one of these positions, but there seems to be a decent number that I am qualified for. I can only say that I have applied and that I hope to hear from any one of them soon.
On another front, I've decided to become a Big Brother. From everything I've heard, it's an amazing experience. However, I'm completely terrified right now of being a failure. These kids need a good role model and someone that they look up to. I know that I'm not really successful yet, though I don't think I'm a failure by any means, so I hope that I will be able to provide them with a fun and positive influence that they wouldn't otherwise have. I've spoken to a friend about his experience with the program and he said that he was terrified the first time too. Hopefully I will get over the jitters and have a happy and successful relationship with my Little.
And, of course, the Royals are winning. This may be the greatest part of the whole thing. It's hard for me to really enjoy the Royals winning right now because I feel like everyone is waiting for them to fall on their collective face. While I'm not ruling this out, I also think that this Royals team is fairly well equipped to compete and that all of these WAR/added wins over the offseason equations are complete bullshit. Just look at the Jays and how bad they are. They were supposedly the "winners" of the offseason. I know that Jose Reyes is hurt, but that won't change everything. It will be interesting to see how that plays out over the rest of the year. I mean, the Marlins were terrible last year and they essentially just traded for their core players, aside from Giancarlo Stanton.
The pitching has been the brightest part of the Royals thus far, but I have faith that the hitting will perk up. The real problems are these: Butler is slumping, Hosmer is unlucky, Moose started slow, Perez hasn't been overly impressive, Frenchy sucks and Getz sucks. Now, I have faith that four of these six things will improve. You may be able to guess which ones those are. The unfortunate problem with Frenchy/Getz is that the management seems to believe in them. This means that they are able to be bad for longer than they should be allowed. In reality, Frenchy is so bad these days that I wish we would just flat-out DFA him. I was hopeful coming into the season that he could swing back towards his 2011 season stats, but it just doesn't seem to be in the cards. Getz on the other hand has been terrible at getting on base and has marginally greater power numbers since his swing changes two offseasons ago. It seems like he is always going to be a below-average 2B value-wise, so it seems prudent to either give Giavotella an extended look until the ASG or let Johnson take over until we can acquire a suitable replacement.
I do realize that it is only May 9th, but these are the things I think right now. I have not ruled out any possibility yet. Perhaps on June 1 Frenchy will be hitting .290/.320/450 or something acceptable like that, but I strongly doubt it. If Getz and Frenchy do not improve, and quickly, they are very at risk of being replaced.
On a happier note, we should have a decent amount of spending money for next year with all of the positions not named second base or right field sticking around. We could very much use a power-hitting right fielder, though those usually cost a pretty penny. We will have to wait and see.
Hesitantly Yours,
Brandan
The good news is that it all seemed to crystallize for the better when my letter came. Even though I was disappointed with the outcome, I finally could pursue new avenues without a fear of having to change mid-course. This was a relief, but it doesn't make things any easier.
I've decided to apply to various research and healthcare positions in the area in order to further bolster my application. I really have no idea when or where I will find one of these positions, but there seems to be a decent number that I am qualified for. I can only say that I have applied and that I hope to hear from any one of them soon.
On another front, I've decided to become a Big Brother. From everything I've heard, it's an amazing experience. However, I'm completely terrified right now of being a failure. These kids need a good role model and someone that they look up to. I know that I'm not really successful yet, though I don't think I'm a failure by any means, so I hope that I will be able to provide them with a fun and positive influence that they wouldn't otherwise have. I've spoken to a friend about his experience with the program and he said that he was terrified the first time too. Hopefully I will get over the jitters and have a happy and successful relationship with my Little.
And, of course, the Royals are winning. This may be the greatest part of the whole thing. It's hard for me to really enjoy the Royals winning right now because I feel like everyone is waiting for them to fall on their collective face. While I'm not ruling this out, I also think that this Royals team is fairly well equipped to compete and that all of these WAR/added wins over the offseason equations are complete bullshit. Just look at the Jays and how bad they are. They were supposedly the "winners" of the offseason. I know that Jose Reyes is hurt, but that won't change everything. It will be interesting to see how that plays out over the rest of the year. I mean, the Marlins were terrible last year and they essentially just traded for their core players, aside from Giancarlo Stanton.
The pitching has been the brightest part of the Royals thus far, but I have faith that the hitting will perk up. The real problems are these: Butler is slumping, Hosmer is unlucky, Moose started slow, Perez hasn't been overly impressive, Frenchy sucks and Getz sucks. Now, I have faith that four of these six things will improve. You may be able to guess which ones those are. The unfortunate problem with Frenchy/Getz is that the management seems to believe in them. This means that they are able to be bad for longer than they should be allowed. In reality, Frenchy is so bad these days that I wish we would just flat-out DFA him. I was hopeful coming into the season that he could swing back towards his 2011 season stats, but it just doesn't seem to be in the cards. Getz on the other hand has been terrible at getting on base and has marginally greater power numbers since his swing changes two offseasons ago. It seems like he is always going to be a below-average 2B value-wise, so it seems prudent to either give Giavotella an extended look until the ASG or let Johnson take over until we can acquire a suitable replacement.
I do realize that it is only May 9th, but these are the things I think right now. I have not ruled out any possibility yet. Perhaps on June 1 Frenchy will be hitting .290/.320/450 or something acceptable like that, but I strongly doubt it. If Getz and Frenchy do not improve, and quickly, they are very at risk of being replaced.
On a happier note, we should have a decent amount of spending money for next year with all of the positions not named second base or right field sticking around. We could very much use a power-hitting right fielder, though those usually cost a pretty penny. We will have to wait and see.
Hesitantly Yours,
Brandan
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
I had a medical school interview.
Over the last three or four years, there has been a singular goal to my actions. My goal is to get into medical school. It is something that you must devote every ounce of your attention towards and something that cannot be taken lightly. People assume that if you are smart then you will be able to become a doctor if you do so choose. This is far from the truth. Admittance to medical school is based on a great many factors, but intelligence is not necessarily a factor. It's true that they look at GPA and MCAT scores in order to get a gauge of whether you will be able to handle the material or not, but that has only some to do with intelligence and more to do with effort. And there we reach the real trait that is necessary for med school: effort. You have to try very very very hard in order to get into medical school. According to AMCAS, only 44.7% of medical school applicants are accepted to at least one medical school. This mean that 55.7% (more than half, for those of you with math disabilities) of applicants who have spent hundreds of dollars on the MCAT and AMCAS application, not to mention the thousands on your undergraduate degree which is merely a stepping stone to your desired schooling, will never be accepted to a medical school. Now this number reflects a number of things. Some applicants can be discouraged by their initial rejection while some are just under-qualified. And while it is likely true that you will eventually get into medical school if you apply repeatedly, nobody has that kind of time to wait for their real life to begin.
So this is where we come back to me. Today I had my interview with KU Med. This is my 2nd attempt at gaining admittance to this medical school and I believe that my application has improved greatly since the last time. The issue, however, is not whether I get in or not, but what will I do if I don't get in? I don't want to go to any non-medical school and I don't really want to start a different career, though the options are certainly there. It's a conundrum, and one that I don't think you can quite understand without being in the situation.
Let's put it in a mental picture. We'll say that for a normal situation your future is like that little green line that Fidelity shows you the way to retirement with. It's easy enough to follow and you generally don't have important choices to make, so following the line and continuing on your path to success is relatively simple. For a prospective med student, it is slightly different. The little green line that you have been following for the last several years comes to a fork in the road. On one path you continue on your way to becoming a doctor and everything is perfectly fine. On the other path lies a 400 ft tall cliff with razor sharp rocks at the bottom. This cliff is not survivable. You will never be able to walk down that path again. It seems like an easy choice which path you should choose, right? But wait! You don't get to pick your path! Instead, a group of people get to choose for you. In fact, they get to choose for everyone like you. This is the medical school admissions process. A committee gets to decide whether you achieve your dream or find a new career now that your hopes have been dashed on the sharp rocks beneath the cliff.
And that's where you will find me. I'm standing at the fork in the road, waiting for my life to be chosen for me.
Impatiently Yours,
Brandan
So this is where we come back to me. Today I had my interview with KU Med. This is my 2nd attempt at gaining admittance to this medical school and I believe that my application has improved greatly since the last time. The issue, however, is not whether I get in or not, but what will I do if I don't get in? I don't want to go to any non-medical school and I don't really want to start a different career, though the options are certainly there. It's a conundrum, and one that I don't think you can quite understand without being in the situation.
Let's put it in a mental picture. We'll say that for a normal situation your future is like that little green line that Fidelity shows you the way to retirement with. It's easy enough to follow and you generally don't have important choices to make, so following the line and continuing on your path to success is relatively simple. For a prospective med student, it is slightly different. The little green line that you have been following for the last several years comes to a fork in the road. On one path you continue on your way to becoming a doctor and everything is perfectly fine. On the other path lies a 400 ft tall cliff with razor sharp rocks at the bottom. This cliff is not survivable. You will never be able to walk down that path again. It seems like an easy choice which path you should choose, right? But wait! You don't get to pick your path! Instead, a group of people get to choose for you. In fact, they get to choose for everyone like you. This is the medical school admissions process. A committee gets to decide whether you achieve your dream or find a new career now that your hopes have been dashed on the sharp rocks beneath the cliff.
And that's where you will find me. I'm standing at the fork in the road, waiting for my life to be chosen for me.
Impatiently Yours,
Brandan
Monday, December 10, 2012
I became a Royals fan.
Well this is more of a test than anything. I'm looking for somewhere to spill my thoughts where the mess won't make anyone upset. This seems as good a place as any.
Let's start with the Royals. This is a subject that I am rather fond of, if not obsessed with.
I wasn't always a Royals fan. In fact, I grew up as an Indians fan. Though this seems rather odd for a boy from Kansas, it was my father who set me on this path. Throughout the 90s I was able to root for a very successful team. Though they had some hard years in the early 2000s, the Indians were a damn good team as late as 2007. Since then, things have not gone well for them. As the Indians fell into darkness, in this case media darkness since nobody wants to televise a loser, it became more difficult to follow them. The natural response was to leave the shadow of my forefathers and blaze my own trail. It just so happened that this trail was to a new baseball team. Don't judge me, my journey was every bit as hard as you might imagine. That is to say, it was as simple as changing the channel.
You see, when you live in Kansas, you have about three options when it comes to rooting for baseball teams. You can root for the Royals, the Cardinals or the Yankees. The first is only an option because local TV stations have decided that people want to watch a team lose for 27 years. The other two are there because they are the only games that are ever shown on national television. As a convert from the long-suffering Cleveland fan base, I was obviously attracted to the losing ways of the Royals.
Though the loss to the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS was the genesis of my transition to Royals fandom, I didn't truly become a fanatic until 2010. This was the last year B.P. (Before Prospects). As you may remember, the brightest spots back then were Greinke, Soria, Billy Butler and Mike Aviles. I obviously was a huge fan of Greinke, but Aviles also had some sort of special power over me. I always thought that he would become a great player despite his not-so-rare lapses of concentration and a batting stance that makes even the untrained eye cringe. If the team had only ever been this, I may have just given up. Then, we traded Greinke and I was alerted to a bright new world. The world of prospects!
The idea of prospects is something that we can all identify with. Prospects are that moment when you think about asking a girl out and you believe that she could end up being your wife. Prospects are diving into your Christmas stocking, not knowing what joys you may discover. Prospects are...you get the picture, right? Prospects are the hope that tomorrow will be better than today. The hope that one of the guys, who you likely have never seen and only heard about, will become a superstar and lead your team back to the promised land. Since Kansas City hasn't been to the playoffs since 1985, they are all about prospects.
The world of prospects was something that I had not anticipated, but for someone like me, who loves stats and very much wishes that the future was as bright as these prospects promise, it was wonderful. It didn't hurt that the Royals had collected what many saw as the greatest collection of prospects in the history of baseball. They had Montgomery, Lamb, Moustakas, Duffy, Hosmer, Dwyer and Myers, just to name a few. This group earned Kansas City the honor being named the top Minor League system in all of baseball. The promise of a better tomorrow created by these "can't miss" prospects could blind even the most skeptical of fans.
The 2011 season started no better than the previous. We were largely still using stopgap players and taking gambles on guys who were being bought low. Examples of these "buy low" guys are Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera (worked out for one year, then...well...). Kila Kai'ahue was supposed to be a great first baseman from the minors. He wasn't supposed to be a star, but many thought that he could be the everyday first baseman on a good team. Then the season started. Kila was awful. Aside from once hitting a game-winning home run, he just plain couldn't hit. This led to the first member of the First Wave coming up to the majors. You see, Eric Hosmer was also a first baseman and had been shredding AAA pitching to the tune of a .440 batting average. The Royals decided that it was time to bring up their young star and get him acclimated to the major league scene. Hosmer arrived in Kansas City to much fanfare and proceeded to finish third in Rookie of the Year voting with .293 batting average and 19 home runs. Over the course of the season, the youth movement became more pronounced. Danny Duffy, a LHP, made his debut. Mike Moustakas was called up to become the everyday third baseman. Johnny Giavotella was inserted at second base to give the Royals an infield that was the youngest in baseball. Then, out of nowhere, Salvador Perez burst onto the scene and became a fan favorite for his grit, rocket arm and surprising bat. The future was looking bright.
What was lost in the excitement of several of our biggest prospects making their debuts was that several others were seeing significant regression. In 2011, John Lamb tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. Mike Montgomery posted an ERA over 5.00 at AA. Chris Dwyer thought that looked cool and did it too. Wil Myers had an injury-marred season and finished with a batting average around .250. Though many had made their debuts, the critical flaw of prospects became apparent: they are not sure things.
Still, when the Royals traded Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sànchez, the followers thought that he, along with a consistent Bruce Chen, an improved Luke Hochevar, second year man Danny Duffy and a resurgent Felipe Paulino could lead the young, talented roster to the promised land. This dream was cut short early when our star closer, Joakim Soria, went down with Tommy John surgery. The dream was further dampened as rising star Salvador Perez tore his meniscus and missed half the season. As the season began, there was still some hope that the dream could survive. We were mistaken. The dream quickly shifted into a nightmare as UCL tears to both Duffy and Paulino and a groin tear from Lorenzo Cain, who had replaced Melky in center field, took a decent chunk out of the team. Add this to the horrible seasons from Francoeur and Hosmer, who had both been pretty good in 2011, and 2012 quickly became another season of development and prospect watching.
Luckily, our prospects were looking pretty good again. In fact, Wil Myers was arguably the best player in all of minor league baseball. He hit. Not just hit, but crushed. He was a force of nature with a bat in his hand. After beginning the year in AA, Myers rocketed up to AAA where he continued his torrid pace. By June, many pundits were calling for Francoeur to be benched and Myers to be promoted. The Royals stuck to their guns and left him in the minors. Why? We may never know, but the allure of something you can't have is always more appetizing than finally tasting it. All I can say is that Francoeur remained in the lineup and Wil Myers became the Minor League Player of the Year.
This brings us, roughly, to today. Not today, but the present. Shut up. The Royals decided that their First Wave of talent was ready and opted to use what had been hailed as the Second Wave (Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery) to take a massive leap forward. They traded all these prospects for two major league starting pitchers. They traded all these prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis. These pitchers had been in the Rays organization for a considerable time and had both experienced a decent level of major league success with Shields being very close to what some might call an "ace". You might think that the Royals were widely lauded for using their unproven talent to correct the glaring hole in the team. You might think incorrectly. You see, the Royals have been terrible for 27 years. They have been terrible since the day after they won the 1985 World Series. Fans who haven't been to the playoffs in 27 years have a certain kind of mindset. They are afraid. They are afraid to invest, because they only know that this team can lose. This is an understandable situation. It's almost like Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. You see something for so long, it becomes part of you. When Kansas Citians think of baseball, they don't think of the 1985 Royals lifting that trophy over their heads. They think of the nearly three decades of losing that have followed. They can't shake it. It's ingrained in them. As Ellis Boyd Redding might put it, they are institutionalized. They are so used to the "next year we might have a shot" that the idea of playing for today terrifies them. Is it the fear of failure that creates this prospect-fueled angst? I don't know. What I do know is that the Royals, for the first time in decades, are focused on winning now. Regardless of how the next two years work out (the length of Shields' contractual obligation), this step has taken the Royals to the next level.
We are done waiting for tomorrow to be better. We are ready for today to be a good day.
Readily yours,
Brandan
Let's start with the Royals. This is a subject that I am rather fond of, if not obsessed with.
I wasn't always a Royals fan. In fact, I grew up as an Indians fan. Though this seems rather odd for a boy from Kansas, it was my father who set me on this path. Throughout the 90s I was able to root for a very successful team. Though they had some hard years in the early 2000s, the Indians were a damn good team as late as 2007. Since then, things have not gone well for them. As the Indians fell into darkness, in this case media darkness since nobody wants to televise a loser, it became more difficult to follow them. The natural response was to leave the shadow of my forefathers and blaze my own trail. It just so happened that this trail was to a new baseball team. Don't judge me, my journey was every bit as hard as you might imagine. That is to say, it was as simple as changing the channel.
You see, when you live in Kansas, you have about three options when it comes to rooting for baseball teams. You can root for the Royals, the Cardinals or the Yankees. The first is only an option because local TV stations have decided that people want to watch a team lose for 27 years. The other two are there because they are the only games that are ever shown on national television. As a convert from the long-suffering Cleveland fan base, I was obviously attracted to the losing ways of the Royals.
Though the loss to the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS was the genesis of my transition to Royals fandom, I didn't truly become a fanatic until 2010. This was the last year B.P. (Before Prospects). As you may remember, the brightest spots back then were Greinke, Soria, Billy Butler and Mike Aviles. I obviously was a huge fan of Greinke, but Aviles also had some sort of special power over me. I always thought that he would become a great player despite his not-so-rare lapses of concentration and a batting stance that makes even the untrained eye cringe. If the team had only ever been this, I may have just given up. Then, we traded Greinke and I was alerted to a bright new world. The world of prospects!
The idea of prospects is something that we can all identify with. Prospects are that moment when you think about asking a girl out and you believe that she could end up being your wife. Prospects are diving into your Christmas stocking, not knowing what joys you may discover. Prospects are...you get the picture, right? Prospects are the hope that tomorrow will be better than today. The hope that one of the guys, who you likely have never seen and only heard about, will become a superstar and lead your team back to the promised land. Since Kansas City hasn't been to the playoffs since 1985, they are all about prospects.
The world of prospects was something that I had not anticipated, but for someone like me, who loves stats and very much wishes that the future was as bright as these prospects promise, it was wonderful. It didn't hurt that the Royals had collected what many saw as the greatest collection of prospects in the history of baseball. They had Montgomery, Lamb, Moustakas, Duffy, Hosmer, Dwyer and Myers, just to name a few. This group earned Kansas City the honor being named the top Minor League system in all of baseball. The promise of a better tomorrow created by these "can't miss" prospects could blind even the most skeptical of fans.
The 2011 season started no better than the previous. We were largely still using stopgap players and taking gambles on guys who were being bought low. Examples of these "buy low" guys are Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera (worked out for one year, then...well...). Kila Kai'ahue was supposed to be a great first baseman from the minors. He wasn't supposed to be a star, but many thought that he could be the everyday first baseman on a good team. Then the season started. Kila was awful. Aside from once hitting a game-winning home run, he just plain couldn't hit. This led to the first member of the First Wave coming up to the majors. You see, Eric Hosmer was also a first baseman and had been shredding AAA pitching to the tune of a .440 batting average. The Royals decided that it was time to bring up their young star and get him acclimated to the major league scene. Hosmer arrived in Kansas City to much fanfare and proceeded to finish third in Rookie of the Year voting with .293 batting average and 19 home runs. Over the course of the season, the youth movement became more pronounced. Danny Duffy, a LHP, made his debut. Mike Moustakas was called up to become the everyday third baseman. Johnny Giavotella was inserted at second base to give the Royals an infield that was the youngest in baseball. Then, out of nowhere, Salvador Perez burst onto the scene and became a fan favorite for his grit, rocket arm and surprising bat. The future was looking bright.
What was lost in the excitement of several of our biggest prospects making their debuts was that several others were seeing significant regression. In 2011, John Lamb tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. Mike Montgomery posted an ERA over 5.00 at AA. Chris Dwyer thought that looked cool and did it too. Wil Myers had an injury-marred season and finished with a batting average around .250. Though many had made their debuts, the critical flaw of prospects became apparent: they are not sure things.
Still, when the Royals traded Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sànchez, the followers thought that he, along with a consistent Bruce Chen, an improved Luke Hochevar, second year man Danny Duffy and a resurgent Felipe Paulino could lead the young, talented roster to the promised land. This dream was cut short early when our star closer, Joakim Soria, went down with Tommy John surgery. The dream was further dampened as rising star Salvador Perez tore his meniscus and missed half the season. As the season began, there was still some hope that the dream could survive. We were mistaken. The dream quickly shifted into a nightmare as UCL tears to both Duffy and Paulino and a groin tear from Lorenzo Cain, who had replaced Melky in center field, took a decent chunk out of the team. Add this to the horrible seasons from Francoeur and Hosmer, who had both been pretty good in 2011, and 2012 quickly became another season of development and prospect watching.
Luckily, our prospects were looking pretty good again. In fact, Wil Myers was arguably the best player in all of minor league baseball. He hit. Not just hit, but crushed. He was a force of nature with a bat in his hand. After beginning the year in AA, Myers rocketed up to AAA where he continued his torrid pace. By June, many pundits were calling for Francoeur to be benched and Myers to be promoted. The Royals stuck to their guns and left him in the minors. Why? We may never know, but the allure of something you can't have is always more appetizing than finally tasting it. All I can say is that Francoeur remained in the lineup and Wil Myers became the Minor League Player of the Year.
This brings us, roughly, to today. Not today, but the present. Shut up. The Royals decided that their First Wave of talent was ready and opted to use what had been hailed as the Second Wave (Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery) to take a massive leap forward. They traded all these prospects for two major league starting pitchers. They traded all these prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis. These pitchers had been in the Rays organization for a considerable time and had both experienced a decent level of major league success with Shields being very close to what some might call an "ace". You might think that the Royals were widely lauded for using their unproven talent to correct the glaring hole in the team. You might think incorrectly. You see, the Royals have been terrible for 27 years. They have been terrible since the day after they won the 1985 World Series. Fans who haven't been to the playoffs in 27 years have a certain kind of mindset. They are afraid. They are afraid to invest, because they only know that this team can lose. This is an understandable situation. It's almost like Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. You see something for so long, it becomes part of you. When Kansas Citians think of baseball, they don't think of the 1985 Royals lifting that trophy over their heads. They think of the nearly three decades of losing that have followed. They can't shake it. It's ingrained in them. As Ellis Boyd Redding might put it, they are institutionalized. They are so used to the "next year we might have a shot" that the idea of playing for today terrifies them. Is it the fear of failure that creates this prospect-fueled angst? I don't know. What I do know is that the Royals, for the first time in decades, are focused on winning now. Regardless of how the next two years work out (the length of Shields' contractual obligation), this step has taken the Royals to the next level.
We are done waiting for tomorrow to be better. We are ready for today to be a good day.
Readily yours,
Brandan
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